Baltimpore Orioles Offseason Thoughts

I’ve now completed offseason previews for the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays. Next up is the Baltimore Orioles.

After a decade of futility, the Orioles are on the right track. General manager Andy MacPhail has done a fine job of stockpiling the farm system with exciting young talent, highlighted by the pitching trio of Jake Arrieta Brian Matusz and Chris Tillman and catcher Matt Wieters. While the future looks bright, though, the franchise is still at least a full season away from competing in the powerhouse American League East.

As a result, Baltimore finds itself in an interesting position this winter. The team has payroll flexibility, and, according to Peter Gammons, is expected to go out and spend. MacPhail has to keep the Orioles’ best long-term interests in mind as he enters the Winter Meetings, however, and factor in where his teams falls on the success cycle before making any major decisions. Of course, that means he shouldn’t sign any Type A free agents—even though the O’s first-round pick is protected, losing a second-rounder would still sting—or make long-term commitments to a player who will block any top prospect.

According to numerous reports, Baltimore has one major priority above all else: adding an impact, middle-of-the-order bat. Outside of the top two hitters on the market, Jason Bay and Matt Holliday, the pickings are pretty slim in that department, though, and it would be bad business for the Orioles to tie up a significant portion of their payroll into either player. Some potential options available to serve as a short-term run producer in the middle of the lineup are Hank Blalock, Jermaine Dye, Vladimir Guerrero, Nick Johnson and Hideki Matsui.

Out of that group, only Blalock and Johnson will be able to contribute on defense. Dye, who has graded out as third-worst defensive outfielder in the majors since 2007, is open to a move to first base but making a successful switch is easier said than done; color me skeptical. Likewise, Guerrero and Matsui are also better suited as designated hitters at this point of their careers. Plus, there’s no guarantee that either player would want to come to play for the perennial basement dwellers, anyway.

Blalock is no longer the budding star that he was for the Texas Rangers in 2003 and 2004, when he combined to post 9.7 Wins Above Replacement. Injuries and plate discipline issues have really held him back. Although he was finally healthy for a full season, his performance tanked. He posted a weak line of .234/.277/.459 and struck out 108 times against only 26 walks while playing in a band box at the Ballpark at Arlington. While he did suffer from a ridiculously low batting average on balls in play (.252, .47 points below his career average) and should rebound, his presence in the Rangers’ lineup represented a pretty big hole. He’ll likely be had for cheap and has power potential, perhaps more so than the other options, but the negatives outweigh the upside.

On the other hand, Johnson would be an excellent short-term addition to fill the opening at first base. He lacks the power that Baltimore is said to be looking for, but he boasts the highest on-base percentage from last season among all free agents, .402. If not for consistent injury issues, he would command a multi-year contract but his inability to stay on the field will make him somewhat affordable. He could be a big boost to the offense and won’t block first base prospect Brandon Snyder, who could be ready at some point next summer.

The most notable holes for the Orioles are clearly the infield corners, though, with Michael Aubrey and Ty Wigginton currently penciled in to start on the team depth chart. That corner combo is obviously not ideal, especially defensively. Wigginton is known for his versatility, but, just because he can play multiple positions, doesn’t mean that he can do so effectively. Indeed, he has graded out -60.2 runs below average in the field since 2002, according to FanGraphs’ UZR, and the limited third base data available for him is brutal. While he can crush lefties, his defensive futility hurts his overall value and makes him better suited as a bat of the bench for a team that expects to win more times than not.

If the club wants to go the cheap route, lasting a few months with Aubrey at first wouldn’t be too terrible. He made the most of his limited opportunity at the major league level in ’09, batting .289/.326/.500 with a 114 OPS+ in 95 plate appearances. While he has hit for high batting averages and made good contact at the upper levels of the minors, though, he has minimal power and mediocre on-base skills. Thus, he would hardly provide the pop that MacPhail is hoping for. Indeed, Bill James projects him to hit just .270/.311/.415 with a .726 OPS and .319 Weighted On-Base Average.

Therefore, I would do my due diligence and make a concerted effort to sign Johnson assuming that the organization feels Snyder is the permanent solution and will be ready by 2011. Even that isn’t a sure thing, though. Snyder saw his prospect status soar after dominating Double-A this summer, raking at a clip of .343/.421/.597 with 10 homers in 233 plate appearances. It was quite a performance. However, he was aided by a ridiculously high .404 BABIP and came down to earth tremendously after a promotion to Triple-A; his wOBA fell from .444 to .304. He’ll never hit for a ton of power, either, so feelings are mixed about his upside, but he’s certainly the top internal prospect at the position.

There are some solutions at the hot corner even with Chone Figgins and Placido Polanco officially off the market. Adrian Beltre, a fine defender, is the premier name available, but he’s a Scott Boras client who will require a long-term commitment; reports indicate that he wants $27-M over three years. He also would reportedly prefer to stay on the West Coast, making a move to Baltimore unlikely. As much as I’ve raved about his defense and potential for a rebound at the plate with a move away from Safeco Field, he wouldn’t be a smart investment for this particular club, anyway.

Signing Beltre would only block the top position prospect in the organization, Josh Bell, who came over in the George Sherrill trade. Bell, 23, made an impressive debut at Double-A Bowie following the trade, hitting .289/.346/.570 with nine homers in 33 games. Most important, he quelled concerns about his viability of remaining at third base long term and is now considered a potential plus defender at the position. He was even named the best defensive third baseman in the Southern League by the coaches and managers on the circuit. The switch-hitter has concerning lefty-righty splits against southpaws, but overall he appears destined to be the third baseman of the future in the land of Ace of Cakes. Thus, signing a free agent third baseman like Beltre for more than one season would be misguided.

That said, Bell definitely needs more seasoning in the minors. He has yet to accumulate a single Triple-A at-bat and still needs to refine some of his skills, especially the issues against left-handed pitching. In addition, the team would be wise to delay his arbitration clock and prevent him from garnering Super Two status by holding him down until at the earliest mid-summer since winning now is unrealistic. In the meantime, the team needs a holdover who can do a more capable job than Wigginton.

Two names I think could work are Joe Crede and Pedro Feliz. Now, neither player really has a bat that carries the position but hear me out. They are each likely to come cheap on a one-year deal and play excellent defense. Crede has the back of an old man, and, as a result, is an injury risk. He also hasn’t been an above-average hitter since 2006 despite his power potential, limited by a poor approach and free-swinging ways. Crede earns his paycheck with his glove, though, and he showed that he still had it in 84 games with the Minnesota Twins in ’09, posting a 12.5 UZR and 23.4 UZR/150.

Feliz is also just an awful hitter. According to FanGraphs, his bat has been worth -71.2 runs below average since 2002. He’s an outstanding defender, though, which has made him quite valuable even with a middling bat.

If I were running the Orioles, I would make improving the defense a prime focus. The team ranked 26th in team defensive efficiency last season, converting just 68.2 percent of batted balls hit into play into outs. Baltimore has the makings of an outstanding young rotation, but Arrieta Brad Bergensen, Matusz and Tillman are going to continue to suffer through growing pains. Having an elite defense behind them will only help them gain confidence as they progress as major league pitchers, and doing so could be relatively inexpensive. Since winning immediately should not be a concern—realistically, they still have a long upward climb—putting their future, a group of youngsters that many feel rival the Tampa Bays’ group circa 2007, in the best position to succeed would be a wise decision. Shaving off runs on defense will also help the bullpen to hold onto leads and, while upgrading defense is no longer a glaring market inefficiency, it’s still a somewhat affordable way to upgrade a roster.

With a few moves, the Orioles defense could really improve. First, the team should look to trade designated hitter Luke Scott, opening up the DH position for Nolan Reimold. Reimold had a fine rookie season on offense, hitting .279/.365/.466 with 15 homers in 411 plate appearances. He graded out 23.4 runs above average, and both the FanGraphjs’ community projections and James forecast an OPS above .860 for him over a full season in ’10. Clearly, his bat is valuable and he deserves to play every night.

However, while the sample size is small, Reimold was well below-average in left field; he posted a -10.8 UZR and -17.1 UZR/150 in 741.1 innings there. He would be a fine DH and a switch there would open up left field for Felix Pie. While Pie hasn’t lived up to the prospect billing, he quietly put together a strong second half. The former center fielder is a fine defender on a corner in left and made progress wit his bat. If he were to play left, the Orioles could have an excellent defensive outfield. Adam Jones did not deserve to win a Gold Glove, but he should improve with age out in center and Nick Markakis, a +12.1 defender in 2008, is likely to bounce back as well.

Baltimore already has a fine shortstop in Cezar Izturis, so adding Crede or Feliz would give them an excellent left side of the infield. A few quick moves and a weakness could turn into a real strength.

Dealing Scott won’t fetch much in return, but perhaps he could be flipped for a solid reliever. Wigginton, too, should be openly shopped, assuming that some team would be willing to offer up anything of remote value for his services. Improving the bullpen should be the goal in those trades, since neither player will bring in anything more than a so-so bullpen arm with limited upside. Improving the relief corps should also be a priority, but going the low-cost route is the better strategy as developing bullpen arms is the more effective approach than overpaying for them. Yes, that means no Mike Gonzalez, Brandon Lyon, or Fernando Rodney; it should go really without saying that teams not ready to compete should avoid signing Type A relief pitchers.

The Orioles could also look to add one of the medium-risk, high-reward starters along the lines of former Oriole Erik Bedard, Justin Duscherer, Rich Harden and Ben Sheets. It would be quite humorous if Bedard returned, since he netted such an incredible return from the Seattle Mariners when he was traded two offseasons ago.

Overall, the Orioles are again going to struggle this upcoming season. But all of the talk about them turning into the next Rays in 2011 is realistic. They need to let their youngsters play right now, making only a few cost-effective veteran additions—the Cliff Floyd equivalent—to help provide leadership. And improving the defense, which seems within grasp, will only help out a promising starting rotation. I really like where this organization is headed.

Did Atlanta Braves Act To Soon To Improve Bullpen?

According to Jerry Crasnick, free agent reliever Rafael Soriano is contemplating accepting arbitration from the Atlanta Braves. As a Type A free agent with injury baggage, Soriano is unlikely to exceed what he could expect to make in arbitration ($8-M or so), so, while it would indeed be a surprise for him to return, it is not out of the realm of possibility. His representation is simply bluffing here in all likelihood, but, if the reliever does decide to accept, it will put the Braves in a tricky situation.

Atlanta made an aggressive push this week to address the backend of its bullpen with the expected losses of free agent closer Mike Gonzalez and Soriano. The club first signed left-handed reliever Billy Wagner to take over the ninth inning for Gonzalez and added Takashi Saito in its next move. Saito and Wagner, who each are at risk of breaking down given their age and recent health questions, will make a combined $10.2-M in 2010. In making those decisions, it seemed clear that the Braves were expecting their free agent relievers to reject arbitration and test the open market in search of a multi-year deal.

Not so fast.

If Soriano accepts, Atlanta will now have around $18-M tied up into three relief pitchers. Relievers, of course, are the most fungible role on a major league roster and their performances are extremely volatile from year to year. Thus, tying up such a large percentage of the payroll into the position is simply an inefficient allocation of resources that could be used to improve the roster in other areas, such as left field.

Again, Soriano will probably see what it is out there—according to Keith Law, he is the best free agent reliever available and should be looking at lucrative contract—so all of the talk about what will happen should he return is pure speculation at this point. Even if that is true, though, one can certainly question the timing of the decision to sign Saito and Wagner before knowing for sure that the incumbent relief duo was on its way out. Last winter, teams that waited to see how the market played out were rewarded with bargain contracts. Thus, the downside of waiting a week to address the potential bullpen vacancies remains unclear.

Not only would Soriano coming back limit the Braves’ payroll flexibility going into the Winter Meetings, the draft ramifications are also stark. Signing Wagner, a Type A free agent, cost Atlanta its first-round selection, 20th overall, in the June’10 amateur draft. Even without the impending Soriano issue, the price tag for Wagner was a bit questionable. While he looked excellent for the Boston Red Sox down the stretch, he is nearing 40 and still missed most of last season due to injury. Should he get hurt or show his age, the move could be one that the organization comes to regret.

If Soriano does sign elsewhere, the Braves would offset the lost of their own pick by collecting compensation since he is also a Type A. If not, the loss of that pick hurts even more.

Soriano wants to close, so perhaps taking away that possibility by adding Wagner for that role drove the Braves to act quickly. I question that rationale, however, and, looking at it closely, wonder why the club would not just make a serious effort to bring him back anyway.

Soriano is an elite reliever, and, despite lacking the “proven” closer label, could handle closing duties no problem. The fact that he lacks such a designation, in fact, is the function of a lack of opportunity, not a personal knock against him. According to FanGraphs’ metric Wins Above Replacement, he was actually the seventh-most valuable reliever, including those with the proven closer tag, in the majors in 2009; he produced an impressive 2.0 WAR. The flame-throwing right-hander continued to miss bats an incredible clip, striking out 102 in 75.2 innings pitched, and only Jonathan Broxton of the Los Angeles Dodgers managed a higher strikeout rate than his 12.13 K/9. He also outpithced his 2.97 ERA and 138 ERA+, posting an excellent 2.54 Fielding Independent Pitching.

When it comes to annual rate, Soriano would have been more expensive than Wagner. The latter comes with more risk, however, and retaining their own player would have allowed them to protect their first-rounder. Of course, if a team wishes to add a true impact position player or starting pitcher, the benefits far exceed the cost of the pick depending on where the team falls on the success cycle. For a reliever, though, it is a pretty big hit, especially considering the internal considerations.

Atlanta will have one heck of a bullpen should Soriano accept, that is for sure, so it will not be the end of the world if he comes back. Indeed, assuming all three pitchers remain effective and healthy, the group could rival any relief corps in the National League. At that cost (picks and payroll), though, they damn well better.

Buyer Beware: Brandon Lyon

The Philadelphia Phillies made their first splash in free agency this week, signing infielder Placido Polanco to play third base. And, according to sources, Polanco may not be the only member of the 2009 Detroit Tigers to end up in Philadelphia. The club, reports say, is focusing on adding reliever Brandon Lyon as a potential fallback option should Brad Lidge falter again in 2010.

If I were the Phillies or any other potentially interested team, though, I would be weary in handing out a significant contract to Lyon. On the surface, the 29-year-old right-hander appeared to have a fine season for the Tigers. Indeed, he posted a strong 2.86 ERA and 181 ERA+ in 78.2 innings pitched while recording three saves.

Looking deeper, though, it is clear that Lyon benefited from good fortune beyond his control and is headed for a significant regression. For one, he registered an unsustainable 80.8% strand rate that was nearly 10.0 percent higher than his 71.4% career average. He also benefited from excellent luck on balls in play, posting a career-low .229 BABIP; his career average is .305. Detroit made a concerted effort to improve its team defense last winter, signing the slick-fielding Adam Everett to play shortstop and moving Miguel Cabrera across the diamond to first base. The effort paid off, too, as the Tigers went from 24th to ninth in team defensive efficiency, making the pitching staff—and especially Lyon—appear better than it actually was. The reliever definitely picked the right time to come to the Motor City from the Arizona Diamondbacks in light of the improved fielding unit.

In 2008, Lyon posted a 4.78 ERA and below-league average 99 ERA+ as the Diamondbacks’ closer. Interestingly, though, he actually recorded a much better strikeout and walk rate in ’08 than he did in ’09 despite his ERA being more than a full run lower. His strikeout per nine innings rate fell from 6.67 to 6.52 while his walk rate per nine innings shot up from 1.97 to 3.55.

The primary difference was that Lyon stranded just 69.1 percent of base runners and was hurt by a .355 BABIP. In reality, he was actually a better pitcher the previous season; he posted a 3.84 FIP, a metric which eliminates factors beyond a pitcher’s control, in ’08 and 4.06 FIP in ’09. He also was aided by throwing in pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. To his credit, he did induce more ground balls (47.2% ground ball rate) while posting the lowest line drive rate of his career. Thus, the low ERA was not entirely due to plain old dumb luck. Counting on him to post another sub 3.00 ERA—even moving back to the inferior National League—seems like a trap, though, barring an unforeseen improvement of skills.

Lyon is not a terrible pitcher, by any stretch, and definitely has value. The price tag for his services may be inflated because of the shiny ERA and his 26 saves from ’08, though, making him a candidate to be overpaid. Reliever performances are extremely volatile due to the limited innings that they throw, and Lyon will be another example of that point next season. Thus, before making a decision, the Phillies should definitely be aware of the aforementioned concerns.

Future Is Now For Angels' Brandon Wood

Now that Chone Figgins is on the way out, the Los Angeles Angels are left with a decision to make at third base. The versatile Figgins, who is reportedly headed up north to the Seattle Mariners, will surely be missed as a table setter at the top of the Angels’ batting order. Losing him also opens up a spot on the diamond that will need to be filled either internally or on the open market.

If Figgins had remained in Los Angeles, there was some talk that he would move back to left field in order to open up a spot for minor league infielder Brandon Wood. Under this alignment, Juan Rivera would have moved to right field, sliding Bobby Abreu, a brutal outfield defender, to designated hitter. Given how the organization has handled Wood to this point, though, there is no guarantee that that scenario would have unfolded. Now that Figgins has departed, it is now or never for the former top prospect.

Wood, still only 24, would be the most cost-efficient option at the hot corner for the Angels. While his star has dimmed over the years, he has never been given an extended look at the major league level and could really blossom if provided the chance. Expectations have been high for him since Los Angeles selected him in the first round, 23rd overall, out of an Arizona high school back in 2003. He then quickly established himself as one of the minors’ top prospects. His prospect status reached its peak in 2005, when he posted an incredible line of .321/.383/.672 with 51 doubles, 43 homers and 115 RBIs in 130 games in the hitter-friendly California League.

Since the Cal League breakout, Wood has continued to hit for impressive power. He has smacked 100 home runs combined in the minors the past four seasons, posting Isolated Power totals of .276, .224, .299 and .264 from 2006-2009, respectively. Contact issues have held him back throughout his professional career, however, as his consistently high strikeout rates (ranging from 20 to 30 percent during that time span) have stood out as much as the home run totals. Due to organizational need, he was also moved off of shortstop and quickly shed the future star label.

Wood has also done little to take advantage of his limited opportunities in the majors. He has hit just .192/.222/.313 with an alarming 74 strikeouts (33% K rate) and only seven walks in 244 plate appearances for the Angels. Due to the struggles in the majors, some have placed the dreaded AAAA player tag on Wood, arguing that he is a player who simply destroys inexperienced pitching and gets exposed against more advanced competition.

However, a 224 at-bat sample size is not enough to write Wood off just yet. He continued to produce at Triple-A Salt Lake City in ’09, slashing .293/.353/.557 with 22 homers and 72 RBIs in 99 games. He also posted the lowest K% at the Triple-A level, cutting it down to 20.7 %. While he continued to struggle upon a promotion to Los Angeles, he definitely proved that he has nothing left to show on the farm.

Since the Angels fall on the win-now move of the success cycle, they do not have the luxury of waiting to see if they have something in Wood if they are not completely sold that he can do the job right away. If the club were rebuilding, giving Wood 400-plus plate appearances would be a no-brainer. Seattle and the Texas Rangers are within grasp of contention in the division, though, and a significant downgrade at third base could make a negative difference in the standings.

Wood, who boasts a .286/.354/.541 line in the minors, has clear pitch recognition issues, often chasing quality breaking pitches out of the zone. His strikeout problems will also get worse, and it would be foolish to ignore the context with which he has accumulated his statistics by playing in a hitters’ paradise in the thin air of Salt Lake City. According to Minor League Splits’ equivalency calculator, his ’09 Triple-A line would have translated to a mark of .238/.287/.437 in the majors. FanGraphs’ community projections forecast a line of .256/.315/.452 and .332 Weighted On-Base Average; that translates to 1.0 run above average. Clearly, that is not exactly stellar production for a corner infielder and, if he gets off to a bad start early, he could really begin to press.

That said, not many analysts and scouts felt that Kendry Morales would make such a significant impact in his rookie season, either. That turned out okay. By most accounts, Wood is also a strong defensive player—he was considered a fine shortstop coming up—and he can play each spot on the left side of the infield. While he will definitely be a downgrade from Figgins, Los Angeles could do a whole lot worse than having Wood penciled in at third base headed into spring training. The franchise could then reinvest the money saved from going internal at the position on starting pitching (perhaps re-signing John Lackey, or trading for and working out an extension with Roy Halladay) or in other areas.

If Los Angeles does not feel confident that Wood can handle the job, the market does present some external solutions. Even with Placido Polanco out of the picture, third base is one of the rare strengths of the free agent market. Adrian Beltre, a plus defender, would be a logical fit. If Beltre were to sign, the team defense would not miss a beat and he would likely rebound from a disappointing offensive campaign by moving away from Safeco Field, which is death on right-handed hitters. According to reports, Scott Boras is asking for three years, $27-M for the free agent third baseman, but, with Figgins getting only $8-M and setting the market, those figures should come down a lot. Angels owner Arte Moreno hates dealing with Boras, even saying that the team will not pursue another prized client of the so-called super agent, Matt Holliday. If Moreno does not wish to deal with Boras, elite defenders Joe Crede and Pedro Feliz and the offensive-minded Troy Glaus and Miguel Tejada are some other names available.

Losing Figgins hurts, of course, but the Angels have some options and will surely enjoy stealing the Mariners’ first-round pick. What do you think they should do?

Chone Figgins Will Add Needed OBP Jolt To Seattle Mariners

According to Ken Rosenthal, the Seattle Mariners are on the verge of signing infielder Chone Figgins to a four-year, $36-M contract. If it goes through (the deal will likely not be announced until Monday), this would be a sound move for the Mariners.

Figgins, coming off one of the finest performances of his career, is the best third baseman available on the open market and many expected him to command at least a five-year deal. Since third base is one of the only strengths of a weak free agent class, however, the law of supply and demand may have worked against him here a bit and in favor of Seattle. The contract also essentially sets the market for other position players not named Matt Holliday, the only superior non-pitcher free agent.

The Mariners, though, are getting a nice player in Figgins. The 31-year-old infielder put up a fine offensive campaign for the Los Angeles Angels in 2009, hitting .298/.395/.393 with a league-leading 101 walks. He posted the highest walk rate (14.1%) of his career and scored 114 runs. While he does not hit for the power normally associated with a corner infielder, he makes up for the fact by getting on base at a tremendous clip and wreaking havoc on the base paths.

As well, a good portion of Figgins’ value as a player comes from his plus defense. He played an excellent third base in ’09, ranking fourth at the position in the majors with an 18.8 UZR/150, and has really settled in nicely since moving there full time in 2008. According to UZR, he has graded out 24.9 runs above average there the past two seasons.

In this regard, Figgins will fit right in on his new team. First-time general manager Jack Zduriencik immediately identified defense as an area where the team could improve relatively cheaply last offseason, acquiring an elite defensive center fielder, Franklin Gutierrez, in one of his first moves. The addition of Gutierrez, one of the most valuable defenders in the game, and new-found emphasis on saving runs via defense paid dividends.

Seattle fielded one of the majors’ best defensive units, leading the league with an 85.5 team UZR and ranking second with a .712 defensive efficiency rating. The improved defense helped the Mariners shave off 119 runs from their 2008 total (811 down to 692) even though the performance of the pitching staff remained relatively constant. Indeed, the pitching staff finished only tied for 19th in the metric Fielding Independent Pitching as its 4.39 FIP was only .20 points lower than its 2008 total. Bill James once wrote that “a lot of what is perceived as pitching is in fact defense.” That could not have been any more evident than with the ’09 Mariners, whose team ERA dropped nearly a full run (4.73 to 3.87) mostly because of an improved ability to turn batted balls hit into play into outs; the M’s went from 26th to second in defensive efficiency.

Despite rounding out the rear in the American League in runs scored, Seattle remained in contention and increased its win total by 24 because of the strong run prevention. In a pitcher-friendly ballpark like Safeco Field, that is the right approach to roster construction and maintaining the high level of defense is paramount. This move is consistent with that mindset.

The player Figgins will be replacing at third base, Adrian Beltre, was certainly no slouch in the field, either. In fact, Beltre was of the major reasons why Seattle excelled at run prevention, posting a 14.3 UZR and 18.8 UZR/150 at the position. Thus, Figgins will not be a major upgrade defensively by any stretch. He will just help to ensure that there is not a considerable drop off at third base with Beltre departing. Plus, he is extremely versatile and can play multiple positions on the diamond in a pinch.

Most important, the addition of Figgins will add a much-needed boost and OBP jolt to a poor offense. Seattle really struggled to score runs in ’09, hitting just .258/.314/.402 as a team while producing the third-fewest runs total, 640, in the majors. The offense just did not have enough hitters who got on base, which was the most notable issue. The Mariners’ .314 on-base percentage, in fact, was the lowest total in the American League and second-worst in baseball overall, trailing only the San Francisco Giants. Equally damning, outfielder Ichiro Suzuki was the only regular to post an OBP above .350.

It would almost be impossible, then, for Figgins not to help in this department. Even if he never comes close to drawing 101 walks again (his average over 162 games is 71), his on-base skills will be a welcome addition to an offense that desperately needs some. His career line of .291/.363/.388 does not scream star offensive third baseman, but, for this particular offense (when factoring in the home ballpark), his presence at the top of a lineup will go a long way.

Since Figgins is a player whose value comes from undervalued skills (defensive, getting on base), some may feel that the Mariners should have gone in a different direction. Perhaps trying to get a power, run-producing bat. When factoring in batting, fielding and positional factors, though, Figgins actually produced more Wins Above Replacement, 6.1, last season than any other hitter on the market. Zduriencik, who had done a remarkable job since taking over for the embattled Bill Bavasi, clearly understands the importance of those often overlooked qualities in a player based on this move.

That being said, the decision comes with the risks associated with any long-term investment into a single player. For one, Figgins is a Type A free agent and will net the Los Angeles Angels a first-round draft pick since Seattle’s first-rounder was unprotected. Since Bavasi did a number on the farm system during his reign as GM, the opportunity cost of losing such an early pick is significant.

Plus, Figgins is unlikely to ever surpass the 6.1-win total again. His WAR total was enhanced by his UZR, which is going to come down as he ages. He is also more likely to post an OBP near .360 than .400 again as well, given his lack of power. He will definitely be a nice top-of-the-order bat in the short term, profiling as 3.0 win player who should produce a line around his three-year average (.301/.386/.382). However, there is a realistic chance that he will off the map completely towards the end. His ability to hit near .300 drives a lot of his offensive value, but high-average, low-power hitters do not age all that well. His lefty/righty splits are also concerning—his OPS against lefties, 802, is much higher than his mark, 680, against righties—and he is moving into a park that is death on right-handed hitters.

All in all, I think this is a pretty good move for the Mariners, anyway. The price in both dollars and the first-round pick is high, but they are stealing away a key player from a division rival who will help them out immediately. Seattle still has some holes to fill—while the market values power properly and it will not come cheap, adding a dangerous middle-of-the-order hitter would definitely help—but is a realistic contender in the American League West for 2010. Adding Figgins, who fill form a nice 1-2 combo behind Ichiro, will only help their chances.

Marco Scutaro Headed To Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox have found a new shortstop. According to multiple sources, the Red Sox have, as most expected, reeled in the prize of a weak free agent class at the position, Marco Scutaro. Financial details have not been disclosed, but the deal is reportedly for two seasons with a mutual option for 2012.

I wrote about the Red Sox’s shortstop situation over Thanksgiving, laying out a few options other than what appeared to be the inevitable signing of Scutaro given the likely cost for the 34-year-old infielder. At the time, many felt that was headed for a guaranteed three-year deal. Since that is not the case, though, I am more lukewarm on the signing than I initially expected to be.

As has been well documented, Scutaro did not receive regular playing time at the major league level until he turned 28 despite a solid track record of performance in the minors. He was given the utility type label early on in his career, which was difficult for him to shake. Since becoming a regular, though, he proven to be a quality middle infielder.

It all came together for Scutaro this past season. He got off to an incredible start in his final hurrah with the Toronto Blue Jays, finishing at a line of .282/.379/.409 with career highs in home runs (12) and OPS+ (111). He also provided just above-average defense at the position, producing a 0.9 UZR a 1.0 UZR/150. When factoring in batting, fielding and positional considerations, he was worth 4.5 Wins Above Replacement; only Derek Jeter and Jason Bartlett ranked higher in the stat among American League shortstops.

However, Scutaro is certainly going to regress as a hitter going forward. The question is simply how much will he fall off? Many within the industry feel that his power was a mirage, arguing that he will never surpass double digits in homers again. His newfound approach at the plate, though, seems to be for real and his walk rate should remain relatively constant with age. He will likely add a much-needed OBP jolt from the shortstop hole. Even still, Scutaro has graded out -19.2 runs below average overall during his career and has only posted a league-average OPS+ or better once in his career. Thus, expecting him to repeat a 111 OPS+ seems like a trap. FanGraphs’ community projections forecast a line of .272/.347/.381, pegging him at 0.8 runs below average. For a player manning a premium defensive position, that is acceptable output, but those expecting a repeat performance will surely be disappointed if the projection is accurate.

On defense, there is not a lot of advanced data to go by for Scutaro as a shortstop. He posted a 7.6 UZR and 20.3 UZR/150 there in just 472.1 innings played in 2008. The number then dropped to right around average in a more significant sample size. Generally, it takes three times as large of a sample with defensive metrics to provide the same accuracy as their offensive counterparts. This is why relying on scouts’ input when it comes to evaluating defense is paramount. Boston, which ranked 28th in the majors in defensive efficiency, could definitely afford to see some improvement at the position when it comes to preventing runs. While Scutaro is not as talented with the glove as Alex Gonzalez, he is more than a capable fielder, and, in signing him, the Red Sox apparently feel that way too. Entering his mid-30s, however, there is a legitimate concern that he could really decline on this front and lose a step with age.

The Atlanta Braves signed Billy Wagner earlier this week. Since Wagner was a Type A free agent, the Red Sox will receive the Braves’ first-round pick as well as a supplemental choice. That helps offset the cost of bringing in Scutaro, who is also a Type A and costs Boston its first-rounder (#29 overall). While short-term needs marginalize the cost of a pick, the organization has had success going over slot and adding premium talent to its farm system in the later rounds. Even with the pick coming back for Wagner, losing the 29th player taken in the draft is no small price. The more early draft selections a team has, the better off it will be.

It is hard to analyze the move fully without knowing the financials, which hopefully will be released Friday at some point. Scutaro, even with a regression on both sides of the ball, should project for around 2.0 wins going forward. If he is being paid under $8-M, then, the price will be reasonable. The Red Sox had limited options here and are definitely better today than they were back in October. The defense is still a potential issue and there are red flags with Scutaro, but overall this was probably the right choice, albeit one that comes with risk.

Blue Jays Get Picks: Toronto, which signed former Red Sox shortstop Alex Gonzalez last week, is now hoarding draft picks. Right now, the franchise will receive the 29th pick in the draft, though that will change Boston signs a higher-rated free agent (Matt Holliday seems likely). Still, Toronto has eight projected picks in the first three rounds, giving it the chance to make a big splash in the June 2010 amateur draft.

Polanco signs with Phillies

According to sources, the Philadelphia Phillies are close to bringing back veteran free agent Placido Polanco on a three-year, $18-M contract. Polanco will move across the diamond to fill the Phillies’ opening at third base.

At first glance, I am not a big fan of this move. Polanco is a nice player and the dollars on an annual level are reasonable for someone of his caliber. I question the length of the deal, however, and feel that there were other options available. As I wrote here, Adrian Beltre would have been a good fit and third base is indeed one of the few strengths of a weak free agent class.

Last winter, teams that waited to see the market unfold ended up reaping the benefits of a cold market. As a result, some teams looking for help may choose to be a bit more patient this time around. Philadelphia, whose decision to get something done so early into the game and prior to the winter meetings is a bit curious, will clearly not be one of them.

Going back to the player, here is what I wrote about Polanco in my free agent second baseman preview.

The Detroit Tigers have several free agents to bring back but only enough money for a few. Polanco, as a result, could be on the way out of Detroit. If so, his excellent defense (12.0 UZR) will be difficult to replace. Indeed, he formed a fine double play combination with all-field, no-hit shortstop Adam Everett, as Detroit jumped from 24th to ninth in team defensive efficiency.

Polanco was below average with his bat, hitting just .285/.331/.396, and his OPS+ total dropped for the third straight year. His power has dissipated and he continues to offer nothing in walks; he has produced walk rates of 5.7%, 5.5% and 5.4% from 2007 to ’09, respectively. Because of his good glove, he was still worth 3.2 WAR/$14.4-M, but his bat is on the decline and he is about to turn 34. He is unquestionably one of the top second sackers available, but a team runs the risk of getting burned if they pay him big-time dollars. He should be paid at a rate that projects him to be worth two to three wins, tops, as his range is going to escape him with age.

If the initial report is true, Polanco will indeed be paid at around a two-win projection. Thus, it is again difficult to criticize the money invested per season. Even with an offensive drop off, he will likely earn that salary in the short term because of his outstanding defense. He has not played third base regularly since 2002, but his plus glove work at the keystone should translate fairly well to his new position; many others have made the switch successfully in the past.

Polanco is best known for his ability to catch the ball and consecutive games without an error streak, but his defensive excellence goes beyond consistently making the routine play. According to the fielding metric Ultimate Zone Rating, he has graded out as 27.1 runs above average over the past four seasons while producing the following UZR during that time span:

2006: 5.6
2007: 9.2
2008: 2.1
2009: 11.4

It is unlikely, of course, that Polanco will remain a +11 defender going forward. He would likely fall somewhere in the middle between his ’08 and ’09 levels if he remained at second base, in fact. Regardless, he still projects to be a plus defender even with a position switch; the FanGraphs’ fan projections predict him to be worth 6.1 runs above average. He is also a versatile infielder who can play multiple positions, potentially giving Chase Utley a day off at second base every once in a while.

After putting up an incredible line of .341/.388/.458 in ’07, though, Polanco’s performance at the plate has really tailed off. As touched on in the second base preview, his OPS+ total has fallen for three straight seasons, dropping from 121 to 101 to 88 from ’07 to ’09, respectively. With minimal power and poor on-base skills, he is the type of hitter who will have to hit for a .300-plus batting average to be an offensive force. Since he makes consistent contact, he is a safe bet to do exactly that and his failure to eclipse the .300 mark in ’09 can in some part be attributed to a misfortune; his .295 batting average on balls in play was 19 points below his career average. Moving to hitter-friendly Citizen’s Bank Park and to the inferior National League will help as well. When factoring in his plus defense and decent offense, he projects to be a 2.5 to 3.0 win player for next season.

However, Polanco is going to be 37 at the end of the deal and it is hard to ignore the declining trends when it comes to getting on base and power. Should he lose a step in the field and continue to fall back as a hitter with age, this could end up being a regrettable mistake for the Phillies. The club had success with Feliz, an excellent defender who gave them nothing on offense, at the position. While Polanco represents an upgrade, his bat also does not play great at the position and the price to do so was steep when factoring in the length.

This was not a terrible move, by any stretch, and would have been a lot worse had the Detroit Tigers offered him arbitration; as a Type A free agent, he would have cost a draft pick. Philadelphia has an open window of success right now with its star core, falling on the win-now mode of the success cycle, and taking a gamble like this is defensible. I however, would have waited a bit to see if Polanco could have been had for cheaper and made a harder push at Beltre, who would have come with less downside risk.

Los Angeles Dodgers Foolish Not To Offer Randy Wolf Arbitration

Tuesday was a good day for free agent left-hander Randy Wolf. As one of the top starting pitchers available in an extremely weak class, Wolf is looking at a nice pay day this offseason. After the Los Angeles Dodgers refused to offer arbitration to the veteran hurler, though, his value has only gone up.

Being a Type A free agent, Wolf would have cost any other team that signs him an early draft pick had the Dodgers offered arbitration. Since the franchise did not do so, however, he now no longer comes with any draft pick baggage, which works in his favor tremendously. Rather than foregoing the potential for cheap, team-controlled talent in addition to the financial investment it will take to sign Wolf, any interested suitors will get to protect their first-rounder. With the new-found emphasis and value placed on cheap talent, the opportunity cost of losing an early pick would have influenced a lot of team’s behavior when it came to Wolf, who was almost a lock to get an arbitration offer.

The question, then, is what was Los Angeles thinking? It is pretty obvious that finances are going to be an issue for the franchise in light of the current ownership predicament; the divorce battle between the McCourts has made for entertaining theater. The team organizational leadership can deny that the ensuing legal battle over family assets will not affect the budget for baseball operations decisions. Fearing an inability to pay the price over financial struggles for a one-year deal should Wolf have accepted the offer, however, is the only somewhat legitimate defense for this head-scratching news.

First of all, it is unlikely that Wolf would have accepted. Outside of John Lackey, the free agent pitching class leaves a lot to be desired. In his Top 50 free agent preview, Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors listed the left-hander as the fifth-best free agent overall and the best pitcher not named Lackey. Dierkes even projected that he would command a three-year, $30-M contract. Even if that is an optimistic prediction, there is no denying that he is one of the better arms in a thin class and will receive several lucrative offers.

Wolf truly picked the right time to become a free agent and will never be in such a nice position again. He turned out to be a great signing for the Dodgers after waiting nearly all winter before signing an incentive-laced contract, going 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA, 122 ERA+ and 3.96 Fielding Independent Pitching in 214.1 innings pitched. The 32-year-old did not miss a lot of bats but avoided walks and kept the ball in the park, producing solid rates of 2.44 BB/9 and 1.01 HR/9. Overall, he managed 3.0 Wins Above Replacement, his highest total since he was a member of the Philadelphia Phillies back in 2002. Plus, thanks to his shiny ERA and wins total, the perception is that he was more effective than he actually was in reality. Combined that with the weak market out there, and it is no surprise that several teams have reportedly already expressed a strong interest.

The Dodgers should have understood how unlikely it was for Wolf to accept. While he may have netted more annual dollars in a one-year deal should he have won his case, his value was not going to get anywhere higher if he pitched for one season and became a free agent again next winter. Indeed, at his age, this is his best, and perhaps final, opportunity to be offered a multi-year contract. Thus, he would be foolish not to test the market. Regardless of how different the market has valued veterans in recent past, never again will he be a top three free agent pitcher. As I wrote about last week, the 2011 crop of free agent pitchers is going to be loaded, with potential names like Josh Beckett, Matt Cain, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Javier Vasquez and Brandon Webb having the chance to hit the market. Thus, even if Wolf brought an equally low ERA to the table next winter (doubtful), he would be a middle-tier pitcher who would fall considerably lower on Dierkes’ list, decreasing his market value. The window for him to cash in on his baseball talents will be closing in the neat future, and the time is now for him to set his grandkids’ grandkids up for life.

Thus, it was pretty safe that Wolf would reject. At the least, making an offer was worth the risk given how valuable the two picks would be, especially since Ned Colletti has traded away so much young talent, from Josh Bell to stud catching prospect Carlos Santana, depleting the farm system to help the major league club. Instead, Wolf skates into free agency as a lucky man. In fact, he should send each Frank and Jamie separate Christmas cards if the divorce/financial concerns are indeed what guided this. If this was a pure baseball decision, Ned Colletti deserves one for his incompetence, because having Wolf back for another go of it would not have been a bad thing at all. He is surely going to regress—his .257 batting average on balls in play is .33 points below his career average and his 77.3 % strand rate is unsustainable—and he could break down after throwing so many innings; he had not eclipsed the 200-inning mark since 2003. Even with a pessimistic projection, though, he still would have been worth his contract pretty easily, with minimal downside risk because of the short length of the contract. For a team that could have starting rotation issues and is allegedly looking for a “true ace,” a failure to offer arbitration due to the risk that a pretty good pitcher would come back over a potential raise that he would be worth is asinine.

The Chicago Cubs should have offered Rich Harden arbitration but did not. Considering that Harden could have netted a few prospects this summer, getting nothing for him now is a headscratcher. Compared to the Wolf news, though, it is hardly worth complaining about. I surely expected Los Angeles to decline on Orlando Hudson, who also was worth an offer but was benched in favor of an inferior second baseman. Wolf, though? That should have been a no-brainer.

Wolf had a rough offseason after the Houston Astros failed to deliver on their initial offer last winter. As the top lefty on the market with no draft pick baggage, though, it is good to be Randy Wolf right now. Good for him.

Kelly Shoppach Traded To Rays

On Sunday, I offered some thoughts on the Tampa Bay Rays’ offseason needs. One of the question marks headed for the Rays heading into 2010 covered, the catcher position, was addressed by a pair of moves today.

Catcher was an obvious black hole for the Rays in 2009. Starter Dioner Navarro struggled through a horrendous season, batting .218/.261/.322 with a 52 OPS+ in a 409 plate appearances. His defense also left some to be desired. While late-summer acquisition Greg Zaun helped out during his limited time with the club, the position represented a huge weakness that needed to be fixed.

Tampa Bay made two decisions today that should help them do so. First, it acquired the offensive-minded Kelly Shoppach from the Cleveland Indians for a player to be named later. Interestingly, Shoppach was the first name listed in Tim Dierkes’ catcher trade market piece over at MLB Trade Rumors. Given the Indians’ tremendous organizational depth at the position—Carlos Santana is one of the best prospects at the position in the baseball and Lou Marson, acquired in the Cliff Lee trade, is close to being major league ready—the right-handed-hitting backstop was expendable and considered by many to be a non-tender candidate. For that reason, the player to be named should not be anything too special. So, while it is hard to evaluate any move without knowing the exact player headed to Cleveland, it appears to be a sound move for Tampa Bay.

Shoppach, 29, has posted a career line of .241/.327/.449 with a 105 OPS+ in 310 games over fine seasons in the majors. He has outstanding power for a catcher (.208 career Isolated Power), his biggest asset, but will never hit for a high batting average and strikes out a ton (37.3 career K%). Even with his deficiencies as a hitter, though, he provides plus output for the position and still gets on base at a decent clip considering his contact issues and low batting average totals.

After spending most of his professional career in the minors, Shoppach became another example of a player busting out at 28. He turned in one of the best offensive performances of any catcher in baseball for the Tribe, slashing .261/.348/.517 with 21 home runs and a 128 OPS+. His average was aided by a .359 batting average on balls in play, but his .256 IsoP and .370 Weighted On-Base Average were extremely impressive. FanGraphs does not account for catcher defense, but he produced 3.5 Wins Above Replacement in just 112 games. Among catchers with at least 200 plate appearances, he ranked seventh in the game in the stat. Equally impressive, only five backstops posted a higher wOBA in what turned out to be a strong year for the position; the breakout performances of Mike Napoli, Chris Iannetta and Geovany Soto combined with the outstanding production from the usual suspects, Joe Mauer and Brian McCann, raised the bar.

As expected, Shoppach came back to earth in the follow-up act. Limited to only 89 games, he hit .214/.335/.399 with 12 homers and a 98 OPS+ in 327 plate appearances. While he is never going to threaten to hit .300, some of his struggles, at least in the batting average department, can be attributed to misfortune. Indeed, his BABIP fell to .286, despite the fact that his line drive rate actually increased from 18.6% to 21.8%. Expect that to come back up. Even with the drop off, he still outperformed Navarro, whose status comes into question now. More than likely, Shoppach, a so-so defender, will find a middle point between his ’08 and ’09 levels, providing above-average offense at the position that will make him worth between 1.5 and 3.0 WAR. If that happens, he will represent nice value to the Rays even as he becomes more expensive through arbitration before entering free agency in 2011. Therefore, the processes that went into the trade were excellent as he was a great target for a team like the Rays to go after.

If the Shoppach signing did not put a cloud over Navarro’s future with the franchise, then its decision to offer Greg Zaun arbitration did. Zaun, who is actually one of the top catchers on the market, is a Type B free agent and will net a sandwich pick if he rejects the offer. If he accepts, though, he provides great depth at the position in a one-year deal. Thus, while a bit surprising seeing as how the club declined his $2.0-M option and now runs the risk of paying him more than that, it was a chance well worth taking due to the minimal risk; bringing him back should have been a priority either way. The left-handed-hitting Zaun would complement Shoppach nicely. If he does accept (no sure thing, as the Seattle Mariners have expressed interest), though, Navarro should be non-tendered a contract, sending him onto his fourth organization.

While Navarro’s future is uncertain, the team catching situation became much clearer today, leaving the Rays with one fewer issue to address for the remainder of the offseason.

Should The Rays Deal Bartlett?

Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett had an excellent 2009 campaign. Bartlett, in his second season with the Rays, posted a line of .320/.389/.490 with 14 home runs and a 129 OPS+ in 567 plate appearances. Despite grading out -5.5 runs below average on defense according to FanGraphs, he was worth an incredible 4.8 Wins Above Replacement/$21.7-M. To put that into perspective, only three shortstops—studs Derek Jeter, Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki—ranked higher in WAR.

Considering how scarce quality shortstops are, Tampa Bay is doing quite well for itself at the position. While Bartlett, who made just under $2-M this past season, is due for a nice salary boost in arbitration, he represents great value even with a considerable raise expected and is under control until after 2011. For these reasons, it is not surprising that his name has not surfaced all that much in articles written about potential shortstop trade candidates.

Selling high on Bartlett this winter, however, may be in the Rays’ best interest. For starters, the 29-year-old infielder is unlikely to ever match his offensive output from ’09. Headed into the spring, he had hit only 11 home runs in his entire major league career. While there is chance that his power surge was more than a mirage, his track record suggests that he will not come close to matching that total again. Plus, he had never posted a league-average OPS+ before, either, with totals ranging from 75 to 99 in the four seasons prior.

OPS+ totals by year:

2005: 73
2006: 99
2007: 89
2008: 83
2009: 129

That final number appears to be a pretty big outlier. In looking at Bartlett’s batted ball data, there a few numbers that stick out. His line drive rate really surged, shooting up to a career-best 26.0%. The up tick in line drives partially explains why his .368 batting average on balls in play was .38 points above his career average. Given his speed and ability to leg out infield hits, he has always been able to produce higher BABIPs than league average, but both his line drive rate and luck on balls in play should regress going forward.

According to FanGraphs’ pitch type values, Bartlett became a much more productive hitter against fastballs and sliders. Indeed, going into ’09, he had graded out 17.7 runs below average on heaters and -5.6 runs below average on sliders. He produced 24.3 runs above average on fastballs and 5.0 runs above average on sliders this past season, which is a great sign. Another encouraging sign worth nothing, he swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone; his O-Swing% fell to 20.9%, coinciding with an improvement in his walk rate (9.7%).

Bartlett’s success was the result of more than good fortune, it seems, but he is still going to fall back. Even if his on-base and power spikes are for real, his offensive value will never be higher than it is right now, in reality and based on perception. The two currently available projections systems, Bill James and CHONE, forecast the following lines for him in 2010.

James: .291/.355/.407, .762 OPS, .337 wOBA
CHONE: .283/.349/.408

The two projections are pretty similar, suggesting that Bartlett, even factoring in a regression, will again be a valuable offensive performer for a shortstop. Thus, even if his defense does not recover, he will likely be worth somewhere in the 3.5 WAR range.

However, defense is another issue to consider. Bartlett is best known for his glove work, even winning Team MVP honors from the local chapter of the BBWAA as a symbol for the Rays’ jump from worst-to-first in team defensive efficiency on the way to the American League pennant in ’08. According to UZR, though, his defense actually regressed to a then-low 2.1, which many attributed to injury limiting his range. Interestingly, the number got only worse in his second season with Tampa Bay, falling to 5.5 UZR and -6.8 UZR/150. While UZR is far from perfect and known to fluctuate wildly from year to year, his total has now headed in the wrong direction for five straight seasons.

2005: 14.4
2006: 11.5
2007: 7.8
2008: 2.1
2009: -5.5

Had Bartlett put up a statistical defensive performance similar to his pre’07 levels, Tulowitzki may have had a run for his money. Given the injury and jump in age, though, it is not surprising that a player would lose a step in the field and it is indeed a concerning trend. Beyond the Boxscore recently published age-adjusted UZR predictions for ’10, forecasting Bartlett to produce a 1.0 UZR and 1.0 UZR/150, which seems reasonable. Even on the optimistic side, however, most likely he will never shave off double digits in runs again as he ages.

All factors considered, Bartlett’s value is definitely at its peak since his defense should continue to regress. The Rays have a legitimate chance of competing in the AL East right now, and losing him will hurt the Rays’ major league product in the short term. Due to that fact, holding onto him and then seeing how the season plays out is the safe play. The opportunity to sell high with an internal reinforcement, Reid Brignac, ready to fill in, though, presents an intriguing possibility.

Brignac has undergone quite a transformation as a prospect. He was once viewed as a potential offensive stud shortstop whose size and defensive limitations would someday move him to third base. In the past two seasons, though, his defense has improved tremendously at the position while he has struggled to adjust to advanced pitching at the higher levels of the minors. Named the best defensive shortstop in the International League by the circuit’s coaches and managers in ’08, many scouts are confident in his chances of becoming an above-average defender at the position in the majors.

However, Brignac hit just .250/.299/.412 with concerning rates of 6.6 BB% and 26.4 K% in his Triple-A debut. Back at Durham for another go of it this spring, he improved his line to .278/.327/.415, cutting down on the strikeouts (16.6 K%) but drawing fewer walks (6.1 BB%). While his plate discipline is a bit of a cause for concern, a .744 Triple-A OPS is hardly terrible for a 23-year-old plus defensive shortstop. As well, he still has impressive pop for a middle infielder as well, with the potential to become a solid offensive contributor at the highest level during his peak years.

Replacing Bartlett with Brignac would certainly cost Tampa Bay a few runs on offense in the near term. James projects the youngster to hit .259/.306/.408 with a .311 wOBA in ’10, a .26-point difference. CHONE is a bit more pessimistic, forecasting a line of .256/.308/.395. If Brignac is as solid in the field as his reputation suggests, however, the defensive aspect could make up for some of the difference. This is where, as a team, trusting what your scouts say is paramount.

Losing Bartlett, or any the other potential trade candidates on the roster, would hurt. He is beloved by the local media and fan base, making any potential move a potential public relations hit. Dealing him if the return makes it worthwhile—Sandy Kazmir had a fine post about what Bartlett could command back in August at DRaysBay—will free up payroll and allow the club to potentially improve in other areas. With contention within grasp, moving him will be difficult, but, by holding onto him, Tampa Bay runs the risk of having his value fall off and eliminating any hope of cashing him in for a nice package of cheap, team-controlled players who could help out elsewhere.